What the Patient Philanthropy Fund has achieved in its first three years

Imagine having the opportunity to multiply your charitable giving by a factor of 750,000. This isn't science fiction—it's the mathematical reality of compound returns on investment. While most philanthropists focus on having an immediate impact, it’s likely that deliberately waiting and investing resources could allow us to do dramatically more good in the long run.

This approach, known as "patient philanthropy," involves investing charitable resources for extended periods of time—potentially centuries—before deploying them for impact. This also has the added benefit of ensuring that we’re able to quickly respond to future funding needs as they arise, such as unexpected pandemics.

In November 2021, we launched the Patient Philanthropy Fund (PPF) as a first-of-its-kind way to create the ultimate rainy day fund for humanity—a savings pot designed to give our species better insurance, protection and resilience for the future. Here’s how it works:

1. Donors contribute to the Fund to create a shared pool of capital.
2. Capital is invested for long-term gains, initially in a low-fee Global Stock Index Fund.
3. While the Fund grows, more research is conducted into future-focused funding opportunities and optimal timing of giving.
4. When an extraordinary time, need or opportunity arises, the Fund steps in and makes a grant.

This month, as we celebrate the PPF’s third birthday, we’re sharing an overview of how the PPF has grown over the past three years. This post will:

• Explain why patient philanthropy and “investing to give” could dramatically increase our ability to do good.
• Provide an update on the PPF’s investments, governance structure, and small grant deployments.
• Share our vision for the PPF’s future.

A unique vehicle for investing to give

We launched the PPF based on a report we published in October 2020 titled “Investing to Give.” The core idea behind the report is that if you have a certain amount of money you’ve set aside for charity and your goal is to improve the world as much as possible, your best bet might not be to give to charity right away. Instead, a better strategy might actually be to invest your money, so you can give even more impactfully at a later date.

There are many reasons why investing to give might be more impactful than giving today. The patient approach allows us to:

• Benefit from compounding interest. The US stock market has averaged around 7% annual returns (after inflation) for the past century. At this rate, money doubles approximately every decade. The PPF’s funds currently total $2M. That means that, assuming we get no new donations, we’d be able to donate approximately $16M in 2054, or $128M if we wait until 2084.
• Use the “watch then pounce” strategy. New insights and research will eventually open up better high-impact funding opportunities than the opportunities that exist today. Just as modern philanthropists can achieve things that would have been impossible 200 years ago, future philanthropists will likely have access to dramatically more impactful opportunities.
• Defend the world against rapidly emerging threats. Catastrophic threats, like severe pandemics, often emerge quickly. A supply of philanthropic capital that can be deployed quickly is crucial for responding to these scenarios.
• Play a crucial role in a neglected space. Most governments and individuals aren’t naturally incentivized to consider the long-term future, because it’s easier to focus on near-term events—but that doesn’t mean that improving the future isn’t important, especially considering how many future humans there will likely be.

How has the world changed in the past three years?

The context surrounding patient philanthropy has evolved since the PPF was launched. The most critical change has centered around recent advances in AI development, with experts predicting advanced AI sooner than previously forecast. Many philanthropists who care deeply about protecting humanity’s long-term future are now focusing more heavily on AI risks.

Some donors have been re-evaluating the case for patient philanthropy in light of these emerging risks. Still, we believe there’s a strong case to be made for investing to give, in conjunction with our other Funds.

Notably, our Global Catastrophic Risks Fund focuses on similar concerns around safeguarding the future of humanity, but addresses those concerns by taking action today, rather than investing to give. The PPF works together with the Global Catastrophic Risks Fund by allowing us to diversify between an “urgent” perspective, in which we prioritize threats today, and a “patient” perspective, in which we prioritize future opportunities that have yet to emerge.

If you care about protecting humanity’s long-term future but see AI as a more urgent need, our best recommendation is to hedge your bets—consider diversifying your giving portfolio by investing in the PPF while also supporting more immediate funding opportunities.

The PPF at the three-year mark

In its first three years, the PPF has been performing well in keeping with our initial vision. Here’s a quick look at the PPF’s investments, governance structure, and small grant deployments.

How are PPF’s investments performing?

The key strength of the PPF is the power of compounding interest, which makes giving later more impactful than giving now.

The PPF invests its capital for long-term gains. Based on the Investment Committee’s advice in 2021, funds are currently invested in Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund.

The PPF’s investments have seen continuous returns on investment, with an estimated size of £1.99m ($2.58m). This is an overall gain of £470k ($610k) on the £1.52m ($1.97m) in invested donations made by Founders Pledge members and the public. This represents an increase of 30% since the first investment in February 2022.

How is the PPF governed?

The PPF was set up as a special trust in the UK. It’s governed by a five-person Management Committee, all of whom have strong connections and outstanding expertise in how well-timed philanthropy can safeguard the future:

• Eva Vivalt: Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto and Director of Oxford’s Global Priorities Institute.
• Philip Trammell: Research Associate in Economics at Oxford’s Global Priorities Institute.
• Luke Ding: Board Member at Founders Pledge and Advisor to the Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund.
• Sjir Hoeijmakers: CEO at Giving What We Can, and former Senior Researcher at Founders Pledge.
• Max Daniel: Senior Program Associate at Open Philanthropy in the Global Catastrophic Risks Capacity Building program.

What grants has the PPF made so far?

The PPF is designed to make large grants only when an extraordinary need or opportunity arises. Since the PPF’s inception, no outsized need or opportunity has demanded a large grant.

Each year, we make small grants to establish the fund’s grantmaking track record and ensure that the Fund has the infrastructure necessary to support eventual large-scale deployment. These grants are only 0.1-1% of the fund’s total size, and we deploy them to the best available opportunities we are able to identify each year.

So far, the PPF has made three small grants:

• 2022: A $2,000 grant to the Peace and Security Funders Group (PSFG) for nuclear security research. This grant enabled PSFG’s executive director, Alex Toma, to write an insider’s perspective on the nuclear security landscape after the MacArthur Foundation withdrew from the cause area. Her comprehensive analysis is viewable online here.
• 2023: A $2,000 grant to Longview Philanthropy for the Emerging Challenges Fund. This grant supports work that reduces catastrophic and existential risk, including those related to AI, pandemics, and nuclear weapons.
• 2024: A $2,600 grant to the Centre for Long-Term Resilience (CLTR) to help the UK government develop effective policy. This grant supports CLTR’s work to provide concrete policy recommendations that can mitigate extreme risks from AI and biotechnology.

Looking forward

The PPF is currently in phase 2 of a four-phase plan:

• Fund Launch ($1 million): creating the legal, governance, and administrative structure of the Fund; standing up an initial management committee; and developing initial grant-making policy;
• Early Development ($1 million to $10 million): making first small grants; adding one or two additional management committee members; publishing updated research on patient philanthropy;
• Growth to Maturity ($10 million to $100 million): expanding the investment strategy to include active and mission-aligned options; adding further research partners; preparing governance and operations for spin-out;
• Spin-Out ($100 million): creating an independent charitable entity; hiring and contracting relevant staff (occurs either if the Fund hits $100m or after 10 years with minimum $10m).

We hope to hit the $10 million milestone within the next couple of years, allowing us to move into the next phase and expand our investment strategies.

Anyone is welcome to contribute to our Funds, regardless of whether or not you’re a Founders Pledge member. If you’re interested in the concept of investing to give and you’d like to maximize your ability to deploy funds when and where they’re needed most, consider contributing to the Patient Philanthropy Fund here.